2.1            SWI – Severe Weather Indicator

Concept

The Severe Weather Indicator product (SWI) analyses the radar volume data to detect the following severe weather phenomena:

·      Storm areas and reflectivity cores

·      Mesocyclones and Meso-Anticyclones

·      Regions of divergence and convergence

·      Microbursts

The benefit is that SWI provides the user with an overview of hazardous weather phenomena within one image display. The SWI product needs radar data from a volume scan with Z, V, and W data scanned simultaneously.

For each type of weather phenomena a different kind of symbol is used. The visualization is done using a dynamic overlay onto every top projection product.

Product Definition

The SWI product worksheet consists of four tabs, one for each weather phenomena:

·      Microburst              Þ explained here

·      Storm                     Þ explained in chapter 6.1

·      Mesocyclone         Þ explained in chapter 6.2

·      Con-Divergence    Þ explained in chapter 6.4

The different weather phenomena are derived in different algorithm steps of the SWI product. Storm, Mesocyclone, and Con-Divergence algorithms are independent of each other, which is why they are available as stand-alone products (see corresponding chapters). The Microburst algorithm however is based on the output of the other three algorithms. Therefore, in the following only the Microburst algorithm is explained in detail. For the definition of the other algorithms, please refer to the before-mentioned chapters.

Preliminary Analysis

Westward moving disturbances are easily detected along the equator at most longitudes and during all season. Figure 1 is representative Hovmoller diagram of unfiltered, twice-daily 850 mb meridional wind at the equator over the pasific ocean from 1 november through 31 desember 1986. Numerous disturbances are evident. During this particular season they tend to originate near the date line and disappear around 130^o E. Their phase speeds are 5-10 m s^-1 with local periods of 4-10 days. similar disturbances are evident at other longitudes, particularly the africa-atlantic region. africa is though to be a region of genesis for westward propagating disturbances with periods of 3-5 days (e.g., Burpee 1972).

GAMBAR

Fig. 1. Hovmoller diagram twice-daily 850 mb meridional wind at the equator 1 november-31 desember 1986. Contours are plotted at intervals of 3 m s^-1 with negative contours dashed. Zero contour is omitted.

               The power spectrum of the 850 mb meridional wind at the equator as a function of longitude is presented in Fig. 2a. The power of calculated at 61 frequencies for each 120 day segment beginning on 1 september and then averaged over the eight years. There is subtantial power in the 3.5-6 day band (hereafter referred to as "synoptic -frequency") ar all longitudes except 20^o-30^o E¹ and 45^o -60^o W. In fact, at many longitudes there is as much power in this band as there is at periods greater than 10 days and, in particular, near the date line and over the eastern Atlantic there is more power at synoptic than at lower frequencies.

6.2 Observations used for model initialization

period is used to judge observation quality. For example, Hollingsworth et al. (1986) describe how the operational ECMWF data-assimilation system can be used to monitor observation quality. This automated and economical approach to the QC process allows suspect instruments to be identified and corrective action taken, without routinely visiting and inspecting every instrument.

6.2.4 Other observation processing

Whether winds are observed and reported in terms of the individual components or as speed and direction, the measurements may need to be converted to the model wind components. This is because the model u that is defined to be parallel to the grid-point rows, and the model v that is parallel to the grid-point columns, generally differ from the geocentric u and v that are defined relative to latitude and longitude lines. For every vertical column of grid points (the same i, j coordinate), the mathematical transformation will be slightly different. This necessity may be most easy to accidentally overlook when the model coordinates are Cartesian, and the grid-point rows and columns are approximately oriented east–west and north–south.
            Software that interpolates (analyzes) observations to a model grid operates in the framework
of the model’s horizontal coordinate system. Thus, because observation locations are typically defined in terms of latitude and longitude coordinates, there needs to be a transformation to the horizontal coordinates of the model, if it is x–y and not latitude–longitude based.
            Lastly, the units of the observations may need to be transformed to those employed by the model. For example, wind speeds are often reported in knots, but models generally use the meter–kilogram–second (mks) system. And it is common for humidity observations to require conversion as well.

6.2.5 Metadata

Metadata (also called meta-knowledge) accompany the observations themselves, and provide information necessary for their use. Essential types of metadata include the file structure, data format (e.g., NetCDF), the variable (e.g., wind speed), the units (e.g., mks), and the time and three-dimensional-spatial coordinates of the observation. Optional, but useful, information includes the instrument type, the date of the most-recent calibration, and a photo of the instrument site and surroundings. The concept of metadata also applies to model-generated data as well, although the relevant information will obviously be different.
          Conventions have been established for the format of metadata. For example, the NetCDF (Network Common Data Format) Climate and Forecast (CF) Metadata Convention is a welldocumented standard for observational and forecast metadata, which is designed to promote the processing and sharing of files created with the NetCDF Application Programmer Interface [NetCDF API]. The CF conventions generalize and extend the convention of the Cooperative Ocean/Atmosphere Research Data Service, a NOAA/university cooperative group





Model initialization
whose goal is the sharing and distribution of global atmospheric and oceanographic research
data sets.


6.2.6 Targeted or adaptive observations

Economic and other constraints limit the number of observations that are made of the atmosphere, and thus it is reasonable to want to obtain observations from locations where they will have the largest positive impact on model-forecast accuracy, for a particular prevailing weather situation. Methods have been developed to satisfy this need, where the measurements are referred to as adaptive or targeted observations. However, it is clearly not economically feasible to deploy mobile observation platforms on a day-to-day basis. But, there are high-impact weather events, such as hurricanes or severe extratropical cyclones, for which special aircraft observations are made. If the aircraft can be routed so as to provide observations from locations for which the forecast skill is very sensitive to the accuracy of the initial conditions, the procedure can save lives. The routine use of targeted aircraft observations may become more common with the continued development of
unmanned aerial vehicles.

      Various strategies for observation targeting have been evaluated as part of the following
field programs.

• Fronts and Atlantic Storm Tracks EXperiment (FASTEX; Emanuel and Langland 1998;
   Bergot 1999, 2001; Bishop and Toth 1999; Joly et al. 1999; and Bergot and Doerenbecher
   2002)
• NORth Pacific EXperiment (NORPEX, Langland et al. 1999, Majumdar et al. 2002a)
• Atlantic THORPEX (The Hemispheric Observing-system Research and Predictability
   EXperiment) Observing System Test (Langland 2005)
• Annual US NWS Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) programs (Szunyogh et al.
   2000, 2002; Majumdar et al. 2002b)

       The following notational framework for viewing the adaptive-observation problem is provided by Berliner et al. (1999), Majumdar et al. (2006), and others. Let Xi , Xa, and Xv represent n dimensional vectors that define the state of the atmosphere at times ti , ta, and tv , respectively, in terms of the grid-point values of variables or spectral coefficients. The initial time, ti, is when the decision must be made, based on Xi information, about the types and locations of special observations to be collected at time ta (the targeted observation time, and the analysis (initial) time of the operational forecast), where the objective is to optimize the statistical properties of a forecast Xv at the verification time tv . Within the interval ta − ti, the observing platforms need to travel to the target locations so that observations can be made at ta for use in initializing the forecast. The time
interval ta − ti is chosen based on logistical considerations associated with planning the surveillance mission, launching the aircraft, and getting the aircraft to the necessary locations to make the observations. The data set Xa is the result of assimilating standard observations and the special targeted observations, and is used as the initial conditions for the forecast.

Parameterization

The representation of the effects of sub-grid scale processes in terms of grid-scale variables predicted by the model

• NWP models cannot resolve features and/or processes within a grid box realistically

• Parameterization has its greatest impact on predictions of sensible weather at the surface

• Physical processes typically parameterized

• Soil moisture/temperature

• Long wave radiation

• Solar isolation/reflection

• Evaporation

• Convection

• Cloud and precipitation processes

• Friction/turbulence

Convective Parameterization Schemes

• Most NWP models use these parameterization Schemes

• Designed to reduce atmospheric instability in the model

• Prediction of precipitation is a by-product of how the scheme reduces instability

• Expectations of schemes to accurately predict location and timing of convective precipitation is usually low

Planetary Boundary Layer in NWP

3 reasons processes need to be parameterized

1. Phenomena are too small or too complex to be resolved numerically – computers aren’t powerful enough to directly treat them

2. Processes are often not understood well enough to be represented by an equation

3. Effects profoundly impact model fields and are crucial for making realistic forecasts

Problems associated with using parameterizations result from:

1. Increasing complexity of parameterization

2. Interactions between parameterization schemes – these are harder to trace than errors occurring in a single scheme

Dynamics and Numerics of Shallow Water Flows

Outline:

• governing equations

• dimensionles s parameters

• wave propagation, Tsunamis

• hydraulic jumps

• vortex shedding

• Seiche waves

• numerical implementation

Shallow water equations

1. Commonly used in large-scale ocean models

2. Start with Euler’s equations

Phase speed of shallow-water waves

Hydraulic jumps

Shallow-Water Flow Past a Ridge

Atmospheric flow past a ridge

Shallow water equations

• Neglect vertical accelerations

→ Hydrostatic pressure in fluid

−        Assume no vertical variation in (u, v)

a) Advantages

• Allows variable depth in natural way

• Three coupled, hyperbolic PDEs

• The equations admit (weak) discontinuous solutions, which approximate breaking waves

b) Disdvantages

• Equations admit no wave dispersion and no smooth waves of permanent form

• Actual breaking waves create significant vertical variation in horizontal velocity. These equations give vertically averaged velocities, at best.

OR IN COMPUTER CODE:

>> Du/Dt = (f0 + beta*y)v - g*Deta/Dx

>> Dv/Dt = -(f0 + beta*y)u - g*Deta/Dy

>> Deta/Dt = -H*(Du/Dx + Dv/Dy)

Can be derived from primitive equations based on a number of assumptions:

1) The fluid is barotropic

2) The hydrostatic or shallow water assumption based on H<<L

3) Boussinesq assumption

4) neglect vertical component of Coriolis term

5) neglect small advection and diffusion terms

6) eta << H

Periods of seiche waves

Dimensionless Formulation of Shallow-Water Equations

Dimensional formulation                                                    dimensionless formulation

                                                                        With

Numerical Implementation

Staggered Grid

Array Structure

Numerical Integration of Momentum Equation

Dimensionless Formulation

Centered Differences in space and time

Solve for time level n+1

Numerical Integration of Mass Equation

Dimensionless Formulation

Centered Differences in space and time

Solve for time level n+1

tambahan :

1. Lower-tropospheric WRF sounding overlays from (a) nonlocal (YSU and MRF) and hybrid local and nonlocal (ACM2) schemes, and from (b) local (MYJ and QNSE) and hybrid local–nonlocal (ACM2) schemes, plotted around and below the 600-mb level at 0400 UTC 1 Jan 2011 for JAN, plotted beside soundings from the observed JAN sounding and corre-spondingRUC–SFCOA sounding (Cohen et al. 2015)

2. The velocity decreases with increasing distance from the point of impact (due to mass conservation).This provokes the transition from super critical to subcritical condition. The transition is accompanied by a Hydraucalic Jump, where some of the kinetic energy is dissipated in turbulence.

3. Constituents of the PBL and their evolution through the diurnal and nocturnal cycles [from Kis and Straka (2010) and Stull (1988)].

114
Numerical solutions to the equations
3.6 Upper-boundary conditions
 Artificial upper-boundary conditions are required in all atmospheric models because the model atmospheres do not extend to infinity. Indeed, for some historical applications the upper boundary has been located within the troposphere in order to save computational resources. An example of this approach is that Lavoie (1972) placed the upper model boundary, the “lid”, at the top of the boundary layer. Pielke (2002a) describes the location of the upper boundary in various historical model applications.
            Upward-propagating internal-gravity waves, for example generated by mountains or by deep convective storms, can extend to great heights in the atmosphere. Commonly used upper-boundary conditions (e.g., rigid lid, free surface) completely reflect these waves, which is a problem because no such reflection happens in nature, and erroneous downwardpropagating waves contaminate the model solution. There are a number of approaches for preventing this from happening. One involves the use in the model of a gravity-wave absorbing layer, or sponge layer, immediately below the model top, to prevent the wave from reaching the top and reflecting. Such wave absorption can be produced by employing a greatly enhanced, artificial horizontal and/or vertical diffusion (viscosity), where the viscosity increases from the standard value at the bottom of the layer to a maximum at the top boundary. A particular disadvantage of this approach is that the absorbing layer may need to be thick, spanning a large number of model layers and thus involving a large computational overhead. The overall effectiveness of the absorption depends on the wavelength of the gravity wave, the thickness of the absorbing layer, and the distribution of viscosity in the layer. Note that using a shallow absorbing layer with a very large, but computationally stable, viscosity will not be effective because large gradients in viscosity will also cause wave reflections. Klemp and Lilly (1978) defined the entire upper half of their computational domain as the absorbing layer. Figure 3.50 shows a two-dimensional model solution for idealized flow over a maximum in the orography, with and without the use of a viscous damping layer. The Gaussian obstacle had a 5-km half-width, and an amplitude of 1 km. Shown is the vertical motion field in the lowest 10 km of the 50-km-deep model. The model is described in Sharman and Wurtele (1983). The damping spanned the 20 km below a rigid lid that defined the model top. Without the damping, the reflected waves produce considerable noise in the troposphere, over 40 km below the model top. The waves in the solution for the experiment with the absorbing layer could be a result of imperfect damping, or more likely they could be a consequence of wave reflections from the lateral boundaries. An alternative approach for damping the waves before they reach the upper boundary is to use a Raleigh damping layer, again below the model top, where model variables are relaxed toward a predetermined reference state. For example, the Rayleigh damping term in a prognostic equation would be like


where α is any dependent variable, α is the reference value of that variable, and τ(z) increases upward within the damping layer and defines its vertical structure (e.g., see

Ierley et al. [13] solved a a class of nonlinear parabolic partial differential
equations with periodic boundary conditions using a Fourier representation in
space and a Chebyshev representation in time. Similarly as for the GWRM,
the Burger equation and other problems were solved with high resolution.
Tang and Ma [14] also used a spatial Fourier representation for solution of
parabolic equations, but introduced Legendre Petrov-Galerkin methods for
the temporal domain.
In 1994, Bar-Yoseph et al [15, 16] used space-time spectral element methods
for solving one-dimensional nonlinear advection-diffusion problems and
second order hyperbolic equations. Chebyshev polynomials were later employed
in space-time least-squares spectral element methods [17].
A theoretical analysis of Chebyshev solution expansion in time and onedimensional
space, for equal spectral orders, was given in [18]. The minimized
residuals employed were however different from those of the GWRM.
More recently Dehghan and Taleei [19] found solutions to the non-linear
Schr¨odinger equation, using a time-space pseudo-spectral method where the
basis functions in time and space were constructed as a set of Lagrange
interpolants.
Time-spectral methods feature high order accuracy in time. For implicit
finite difference methods, deferred correction may provide high order temporal
accuracy [20, 21]. A relatively recent approach to increase the temporal
efficiency of finite difference methods is time-parallelization via the parareal
algorithm [22]. This method, however, features rather low parallel efficiency
and improvements have been suggested, for example the use of spectral deferred
corrections [23].
An interesting Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov method for implicit timespectral
solution of the compressible Navier-Stokes equations has recently
been put forth by Attar [24].
A time-spectral method for periodic unsteady computations, using a
Fourier representation in time, was suggested in [25] and further developed
in [26] and [27]. A generalization to quasi-periodic problems was developed
in [28].
In summary, although time-spectral methods have been explored in various
forms by several authors during the last few decades, and were found
to be highly accurate, the GWRM as described in [3] has not been pursued.
The present work contributes to the evaluation of this method.
The structure of the paper is as follows. In section 2 we briefly review the
general GWRM formalism for solving a set of pde’s but subsequently restrict

latitudes. However, geodesic grids have a nearly homogeneous distribution of points over the sphere.

In mathematics, a geodesic is the equivalent of a straight line, but on a curved surface. On a spherical surface, such as that of Earth, a geodesic is the shortest path between two points, specifically a segment of a great circle. A spherical geodesic grid is defined by spherical, equilateral triangles whose edges are geodesics. One way of defining this grid is to begin with an icosahedron, the geometric solid shown in Fig. 3.10a with 20 triangular faces (major triangles), 12 vertices, and 30 edges, where the vertices touch the surface of a sphere. The vertices may then be connected by geodesics on the sphere, producing spherical triangles. A grid may be created by dividing the major triangles into smaller ones (grid triangles) using a variety of approaches. For example, bisecting each edge of the icosahedron and connecting the bisection points produces four new equilateral triangles for each original one (Fig. 3.10b). The vertices of these new triangles can then be projected onto the sphere along a radial from the center (Fig. 3.10c), and then connected by geodesics to again produce spherical triangles (Fig. 3.10d). Even though the distances between adjacent points look uniform, they are not exactly so. A hint at the asymmetries from one part of the surface to the next can be seen in the fact that the “new” vertex facing the viewer in the upper-center (Fig. 3.10d) is surrounded by six adjoining triangles, while the “original” icosahedron vertex to its right is surrounded by only five. Williamson (1968) and Sadourny et al. (1968) describe another approach for dividing the major triangles into grid triangles, where the inequality in the distance between points is less than that resulting from the method just described. Figure 3.11 shows an example of the distribution of grid points over the sphere.

Some applications of spherical geodesic grids employ the above triangular cells, while others use a related grid with hexagonal cells. To obtain the latter, Voronoi cells are constructed based on the triangular grid, where such cells consist of the set of all points that are closer to a particular vertex than to any other vertex. For the twelve original vertices in the icosahedral grid (e.g., in Fig. 3.11), the Voronoi cells are pentagons. For all the rest, they are hexagons. Figure 3.12 illustrates the geometric relationship between the triangular

In the generation of a spherical geodesic grid, the major triangles of the icosahedron (a) are subdivided, where (b) shows one approach. The vertices of the new triangles are projected (c) onto the sphere that is coincident with the vertices of the icosahedron. Geodesic lines are then drawn between the new vertices to generate spherical grid triangles (d).

                P. Lynch / Journal of Computational Physics 227 (2008) 3431–3444                              3439

dynamical formulation. Many early coupled models needed a flux adjustment (additional artificial heat and moisture fluxes at the ocean surface) to produce good simulations. The higher ocean resolution of HadCM3 was a major factor in removing this requirement. The atmospheric component of HadCM3 has 19 levels and a latitude/longitude resolution of 2.5 · 3.75, with grid of 96 · 73 points covering the globe. The resolution is about 417 · 278 km at the Equator. The physical parameterization package of the model is very sophisticated. The oceanic component of HadCM3 has 20 levels with a horizontal resolution of 1.25 · 1.25 permitting important details in the oceanic current structure to be represented. HadCM3 and HADGEM have been used for a wide range of climate studies which provided crucial inputs to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The development of comprehensive models of the atmosphere is undoubtedly one of the finest achievements of meteorology in the 20th century. Advanced models are under continuing refinement and extension, and are increasing in sophistication and comprehensiveness. They simulate not only the atmosphere and oceans but also a wide range of geophysical, chemical and biological processes and feedbacks. The models, now called Earth System Models, are applied to the eminently practical problem of weather prediction and also to the study of climate variability and mankind’s impact on it.

3. Numerical weather prediction today
It is no exaggeration to describe the advances made over the past half century as revolutionary. Thanks to this work, meteorology is now firmly established as a quantitative science, and its value and validity are demonstrated daily by the acid test of any science, its ability to predict the future. Operational forecasting today uses guidance from a wide range of models. In most centres a combination of global and local models is used. By way of illustration, we will consider the global model of the European Centre for medium-range weather forecasts.

3.1. The European centre for medium-range weather forecasts
Perhaps the most important event in European meteorology over the last half-century was the establishment of the European Centre for medium-range weather forecasts (ECMWF). The mission of ECMWF is to deliver weather forecasts of increasingly high quality and scope from a few days to a few seasons ahead. The Centre has been spectacularly successful in fulfilling its mission, and continues to develop forecasts and other products of steadily increasing accuracy and value, maintaining its position as a world leader. The first operational forecasts were made on 1 August, 1979. The Centre is currently undergoing enlargement. A new Convention has been agreed and is in the process of ratification. The ECMWF model is a spectral primitive equation model with a semi-lagrangian, semi-implicit time scheme and a comprehensive treatment of physical processes. It is coupled interactively to an ocean wave model. Its spatial resolution is 25 km and there are 91 vertical levels. Initial data for the forecasts are prepared using a four-dimensional variational assimilation scheme, which uses a large range of conventional and satellite observations over a 12-hour time window. A sustained and consolidated research effort has been devoted to exploiting quantitative data from satellites, and now these observations are crucial to forecast quality. ECMWF produces a wide range of global atmospheric and marine forecasts and disseminates them on a regular schedule to its Member States. The primary products are listed here (explanations of technical terms
will follow).
Forecasts for the atmosphere out to 10 days ahead, based on a T799 (25 km) 91-level (L91) deterministic model are disseminated twice per day.
Forecasts from the ensemble prediction system (EPS) using a T399 (50 km) L62 version of the model and an ensemble of 51 members are computed and disseminated twice per day.
Forecasts out to one month ahead, based on ensembles using a resolution of T255 (78 km) and 62 levels are distributed once per week.
Seasonal Forecasts out to six months ahead, based on ensembles with a T159 (125 km) L40 model are disseminated
once per month.

Penerimaan Taruna Baru (PTB) Program Sarjana Terapan Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Tahun Akademik 2017/2018 ( PTB-STMKG-2017 )

       Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (STMKG) merupakan Perguruan Tinggi Kedinasan yang diselenggarakan oleh Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika. Tahun Akademik 2017/2018 STMKG memanggil putra putri terbaik dari seluruh Wilayah Negara Kesatuan Republik Indonesia untuk dididik menjadi tenaga profesional dan ahli di bidang meteorologi, klimatologi, geofisika atau instrumentasi. STMKG menyelenggarakan program pendidikan Sarjana Terapan dengan program studi meteorologi, program studi klimatologi, program studi geofisika dan program studi instrumentasi. Pendidikan tingkat sarjana ini ditempuh dalam waktu 8 (delapan) semester. Seorang taruna dapat dinyatakan gugur jika pada semester tertentu melakukan pelanggaran disiplin, pelanggaran moral dan etika, dan atau secara akademik tidak dapat mencapai indeks prestasi yang ditentukan. Lulusan program Sarjana Terapan berhak menyandang gelar Sarjana Terapan (S.Tr). Tahun Akademik 2017/2018, STMKG menerima taruna baru berikatan dinas melalui proses seleksi. Proses seleksi meliputi Tes Kompetensi Dasar (TKD), Tes Kompetensi Bidang (TKB), Tes Kesehatan dan Wawancara. Seluruh rangkaian proses penerimaan diadakan mulai tanggal 9 Maret 2017 sampai dengan tanggal 7 Juli 2017. Proses pendaftaran dilakukan secara on-line mulai tanggal 9 Maret 2016 sampai dengan tanggal 10 April 2016. Tes Kompetensi Dasar (TKD) dan Tes Kompetensi Bidang (TKB) akan dilaksanakan di 10 ( sepuluh ) Kantor Badan Kepegawaian Negara (BKN) menggunakan sistim Computer Assisted Test (CAT). Setelah menyelesaikan pendidikan, taruna akan diangkat sebagai Calon Pegawai Negri Sipil (CPNS) sesuai ketentuan yang berlaku, dan selanjutnya ditempatkan di unit pelaksana teknis (UPT) Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika di seluruh Indonesia. Biaya selama pendidikan ditanggung Negara. Selama pendidikan tidak disediakan asrama.
Panitia Penerimaan Taruna Baru Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Tahun Akademim 2017/2018
Pengantar
A. Syarat Umum Calon Taruna :
1. Pria/Wanita, warga negara Indonesia, sehat jasmani dan rohani, tidak buta warna, dapat berkacamata maksimal -2, spheris dan tidak silinder.
2. Umur tidak kurang dari 16 tahun dan tidak lebih dari 21 tahun pada tanggal 1 September 2017.
3. Belum menikah dan bersedia tidak menikah selama pendidikan.
4. Bebas narkoba.
5. Lulus atau akan Lulus SMA / Madrasah Aliyah (MA) jurusan IPA atau SMK dengan kompetensi keahlian Teknik Elektronika Industri, Teknik Mekatronika, Teknik Jaringan Akses, Teknik Transmisi Telekomunikasi, Rekayasa Perangkat Lunak, Teknik Komputer dan Jaringan.
6. Calon berasal dari SMK dengan kompetensi keahlian pada No. 5 tersebut hanya dapat mendaftar untuk Program Studi Instrumentasi. Kompetensi keahlian selain tersebut pada no. 5 tidak dapat diterima.
7. Memenuhi persyaratan akademik sebagai berikut :
a) Nilai rapor untuk calon yang masih dikelas XII SMA/MA/SMK pada semester 3, 4, dan 5 pada mata pelajaran Fisika, Matematika, dan Bahasa Inggris masing-masing minimal 70 (skala 100).
b) Bagi calon yang telah lulus SMA/MA/SMK nilai rapor untuk semester 4, 5, dan 6 pada mata pelajaran Fisika, Matematika, dan Bahasa Inggris masing-masing minimal 70 (skala 100).
8. Tidak sedang menjalankan ikatan dinas dengan instansi lain.
9. Tinggi badan minimal 163 cm untuk pria dan 155 cm untuk wanita dengan berat badan seimbang.
10. Bersedia bekerja di Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika sesuai ketentuan yang berlaku sejak dinyatakan lulus pendidikan, dan bersedia ditempatkan di seluruh wilayah Negara Kesatuan Republik Indonesia.
B. Syarat seorang calon dinyatakan diterima sebagai Taruna :
1. Memenuhi seluruh persyaratan tersebut pada butir (A),
2. Lulus Ujian Nasional SMA/MA/SMK,
3. Mempunyai ijazah SMA/MA/SMK,
4. Lulus Tes Kompetensi Dasar (TKD),
5. Lulus Tes Kompetensi Bidang (TKB), dan
6. Lulus Tes Kesehatan dan Wawancara.
Ketentuan Penerimaan Taruna Baru, Program Sarjana Terapan, Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Tahun Akademik 2017/2018. (PTB-STMKG-2017)
C. Pembeayaan proses seleksi dan selama pendidikan :
1. Biaya selama proses seleksi sampai dengan pendaftaran ulang setelah calon dinyatakan diterima sebagai taruna ditanggung sepenuhnya oleh calon.
2. Biaya pendidikan selama di STMKG ditanggung negara.
3. Tidak disediakan asrama selama mengikuti pendidikan.
D. Pendaftaran :
1. Calon harus terlebih dahulu melakukan pendaftaran melalui Panitia Seleksi Nasional (Panselnas) Kementrian Pendayagunaan Aparatur Negara dan Reformasi Birokrasi (Kemenpan/RB) melalui laman (website) http://www.panselnas.id.
2. Pada proses pendaftaran di laman panselnas, calon akan diminta memasukkan Nama, NIK, dan Nomor Kartu Keluarga (KK), alamat email yang berlaku, serta password yang dipilih.
3. Siapkan data tersebut terlebih dahulu, ingat baik-baik password yang digunakan. Nama, NIK, dan password ini akan digunakan kembali untuk melakukan pengisian formulir di STMKG secara online melalui laman Panitia PTB-STMKG-2017 http://ptb.stmkg.ac.id
4. Pendaftaran di laman panselnas dapat dilakukan antara tanggal 9 Maret 2017 sampai dengan tanggal dengan tanggal 31 Maret 2017, sedangkan pengisian formulir di PTB-STMKG-2017 dapat dilakukan antara tanggal 9 Maret 2017 sampai dengan 10 April 2017.
5. Calon harus terlebih dahulu yakin dapat memenuhi seluruh syarat butir (A). Apabila ternyata tidak memenuhi syarat tersebut, maka calon tidak dapat diterima sebagai taruna, dan biaya pendaftaran yang telah disetorkan tidak dapat diambil kembali untuk alasan apapun.
6. Sebelum melakukan pengisian formulir pendaftaran secara online di laman PTB-STMKG-2017 persiapkan lebih dahulu data yang diperlukan sesuai persyaratan butir A, alamat email yang masih berlaku, dan nomor telp (HP) yang masih aktif.
E. Jenis, Lokasi dan Waktu Tes.
1. Tes dibagi dalam tiga tahap :
a. Tes Kompetensi Dasar (TKD)
b. Tes Kompetensi Bidang (TKB) untuk mata pelajaran Fisika, Matematika dan Bahasa Inggris (bagi yang telah dinyatakan lulus TKD)
c. Tes Kesehatan dan Wawancara (bagi yang telah dinyatakan lulus TKB dan termasuk pada kuota wawancara yang ditentukan)
2. Tes Kompetensi Dasar (TKD) dan Tes Kompetensi Bidang (TKB) dilaksanakan di 10 (sepuluh) Kantor Badan Kepegawaian Negara (BKN) atau di Kantor Regional Badan Kepegawaian Negara (Kanreg BKN) dengan sistim CAT (Computer Assisted Test ) mulai tanggal 25 April 2017. Calon dapat memilih lokasi tes tersebut pada saat
melakukan pengisian formulir secara on-line. Ke sepuluh lokasi tersebut adalah ( lihat alamat detil pada halaman terakhir ) :
1). Medan
2). Palembang
3). Jakarta
4). Yogyakarta
5). Surabaya
6). Banjarmasin
7). Makasar
8). Manado
9). Mataram
10). Jayapura
3. Sesuai dengan Peraturan Pemerintah No. 63 Tahun 2016 tentang Jenis dan Tarif atas Jenis Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajak Yang Berlaku Pada Badan Kepegawaian Negara, setiap peserta seleksi calon mahasiswa kedinasan ikatan dinas menggunakan CAT dikenakan biaya pelaksanaan sebesar Rp. 50.000,-.
4. Pelaksanaan TKD dilakukan secara bergilir untuk semua calon. Jadwal waktu pergiliran pelaksanaan tes untuk setiap calon dan kuota wawancara setiap lokasi tes dapat dilihat pada tanggal 18 April 2017 melalui laman Panitia PTB-STMKG-2017.
5. Apabila calon tidak hadir pada lokasi tes yang telah dipilih sendiri, dan waktu yang ditentukan sesuai jadwal, maka calon yang bersangkutan dinyatakan gugur.
6. Calon dinyatakan Lulus TKD jika memenuhi nilai ambang batas minimal yang harus dipenuhi oleh setiap calon sesuai dengan Peraturan Menteri Pendayagunaan Aparatur Negara dan Reformasi Birokrasi No. 29 Tahun 2014 tentang Nilai Ambang Batas Tes Kompetensi Dasar Seleksi Pegawai negri Sipil Tahun 2014, yaitu :
a. Tes Karakteristik Pribadi (TKP) = 126 dari maksimum 175.
b. Tes Intelegensia Umum (TIU) = 75 dari maksimum 150.
c. Tes Wawasan Kebangsaan (TWK) = 70 dari maksimum 175.
7. Tes Kompetensi Bidang (TKB) hanya dapat diikuti oleh calon yang lulus TKD sesuai dengan kriteria no. 6 di atas. TKB terdiri atas tes mata pelajaran Fisika, Matematika dan Bahasa Inggris, dan dilaksanakan di tempat yang sama setelah semua calon mengikuti TKD.
8. Calon dinyatakan lulus TKB apabila berada dalam kuota wawancara masing-masing lokasi tes sesuai dengan urutan (ranking) jumlah nilai TKB. Apabila jumlah nilai TKB sama, maka akan diperhatikan nilai matematika-nya. Jika nilai matematik-nya sama, selanjutnya akan diperhatikan nilai fisika-nya. Jika semua nilai tersebut sama, maka semua calon pada urutan tersebut akan dimasukkan pada kuota wawancara, dengan catatan yang bersangkutan tidak memiliki nilai tes masing-masing mata pelajaran yang lebih kecil dari 25.
9. Kuota wawancara pada setiap lokasi tes akan diumumkan bersamaan dengan pengumuman jadwal tes TKD.
F. Wawancara dan Tes Kesehatan :
1. Wawancara bagi calon yang dinyatakan lulus TKB dilaksanakan setelah selesai pelaksanaan TKB pada masing-masing lokasi tes.
2. Wawancara dilakukan di UPT BMKG terdekat dengan lokasi tes.
3. Semua peserta Wawancara harus melakukan pemeriksaan kesehatan di Rumah Sakit Umum Daerah yang ditentukan Panitia atau di Poliklinik STMKG setelah selesai mengikuti tahap wawancara.
4. Biaya pemeriksaan kesehatan dan cara pembayaran ditentukan oleh RSUD tersebut dan ditanggung oleh calon yang bersangkutan.
5. Rekam medis hasil pemeriksaan kesehatan dikirimkan ke alamat resmi Pantia PTB-STMKG-2017 paling lambat hari Rabu, 31 Mei 2017.
G. Tatacara pendaftaran :
Sebelum melakukan pendaftaran secara online, persiapkan lebih dahulu alamat email yang masih berlaku, nomor telpon (HP) untuk SMS yang aktif, KTP, Kartu Keluarga (KK), dan file pasfoto berwarna dalam format jpg, dengan ukuran maksimum 500 KB.
1. Calon harus terlebih dahulu melakukan pendaftaran melalui Panitia Seleksi Nasional (Panselnas) Kementrian Pendayagunaan Aparatur Negera dan Reformasi Birokrasi (Kemenpan/RB) melalui laman http://www.panselnas.id. Pada proses pendaftaran di laman panselnas, calon akan diminta memasukkan Nama, NIK, dan Nomor Kartu Keluarga (KK), alamat email yang berlaku, serta password yang dipilih.
2. Calon akan memperoleh bukti pendaftaran melalui email dari Panselnas. Selanjutnya gunakan Nama, NIK, dan password tersebut untuk melakukan pengisian formulir pendaftaran di STMKG secara online melalui laman Panitia PTB-STMKG-2017 dengan alamat http://ptb.stmkg.ac.id.
3. Calon akan menerima SMS dan email yang mencantumkan NO. PEMBAYARAN ( 10 digit)
4. Selanjutnya NO. PEMBAYARAN tersebut digunakan untuk melakukan pembayaran biaya pendaftaran sebesar Rp. 75.000,- (tujuh puluh lima ribu rupiah) dan biaya tes TKD sebesar Rp. 50.000,-(lima puluh ribu rupiah) ditambah biaya administrasi perbankan. Pembayaran hanya dapat dilakukan melalui Kantor Bank BNI atau melalui ATM BNI. (lihat cara pembayaran melalui ATM BNI atau ATM) paling lambat tgl. 10 April 2017. Setelah melakukan pembayaran di kantor Bank BNI atau ATM BNI, calon akan mendapatkan bukti pembayaran dari Bank BNI atau struk ATM yang mencantumkan No. PIN, atau NO. TAGIHAN atau NO. REGISTRASI (12 digit).
5. Calon kembali membuka laman Panitia PTB-STMKG-2017 dengan alamat http://ptb.stmkg.ac.id. Masukkan NO. PEMBAYARAN ( lihat no. 3 diatas) sebagai login dan NO. PIN, atau NO. TAGIHAN atau NO. REGISTRASI (12 digit) yang didapatkan dari Bank BNI atau struk ATM BNI sebagai password.
6. Isilah semua data yang diperlukan, termasuk upload foto diri, dan simpan. Anda
akan mendapatkan Kartu Tanda Peserta PTB-STMKG-2017.
7. Cetak dan simpanlah Tanda Peserta PTB-STMKG-2016. Tanda Peserta ini harus
dapat ditunjukkan pada waktu Tes Kemampuan Dasar, Tes Kemampuan
Akademik, Wawancara, dan pada waktu Pendaftaran Ulang apabila calon
dinyatakan diterima sebagai Taruna.
1. Ikuti proses seleksi awal on-line di http://www.panselnas.id .
Mendapatkan email konfirmasi.
2. Calon mendaftar sebagai calon taruna di http://ptb.stmkg.ac.id
menggunakan Nama, NIK dan password dari panselnas.
Calon menerima SMS dan email yang berisi NO.PEMBAYARAN
3. Lakukan pembayaran melalui kantor BNI atau ATM BNI dengan
menggunakan NO. PEMBAYARAN tersebut ( lihat cara pembayaran
lewat ATM BNI). Calon akan mendapatkan struk dari BNI atau
ATM BNI yang berisi NO.PIN, atau NO. TAGIHAN atau NO.
REGISTRASI ( 12 digit).
4. Gunakan NO. PEMBAYARAN dan NO. PIN, atau NO. TAGIHAN,
atau NO. REGISTRASI tersebut sebagai username dan password
untuk mengisi formulir pendaftaran melalui web panitia :
http://ptb.stmkg.ac.id
5. Calon akan memperoleh Kartu Tanda Peserta PTB-STMKG-2017.
Cetak dan simpanlah Kartu tersebut. Bersama dengan Bukti
Pendaftaran dari Panselnas,Kartu ini diperlukan pada saat tes
TKD, TKB dan Wawancara.
H. Pengumuman Final :
1. Bagi mereka yang telah mengikuti wawancara diminta untuk memberikan kelengkapan administrasi untuk membuktikan bahwa yang bersangkutan memenuhi syarat umum pada butir (A).
2. Apabila terbukti secara nyata bahwa yang bersangkutan tidak memenuhi persyaratan tersebut, maka calon yang bersangkutan dinyatakan gugur.
3. Hasil Kelulusan Final akan diumumkan melalui laman Panitia PTB-STMKG-2017 pada tanggal 7 Juli 2017.
I. Pemberkasan :
1. Bagi calon yang dinyatakan lulus pada pengumuman final, diharuskan melakukan pendaftaran ulang di STMKG Jakarta, antara tanggal 10 – 21 Juli 2017 pada jam kerja.
2. Pada waktu daftar ulang calon harus membawa kelengkapan administrasi yang akan ditentukan kemudian.
J. Lain – lain :
1. Calon yang dinyatakan diterima sebagai Taruna wajib menandatangani Surat Perjanjian Ikatan Dinas. Penandatanganan ini akan dilakukan di kantor pusat BMKG atau di STMKG.
2. Alamat resmi Panitia PTB-STMKG-2017 adalah :
Panitia Penerimaan Taruna Baru Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Tahun Akademik 2017/2018 Jl. Perhubungan I No. 5, Komplek Meteorologi Pondok Betung, Bintaro, Tangerang.
3. Panitia tidak melayani telpon atau surat menyurat antara calon atau orangtua/wali calon berkaitan dengan proses pendaftaran. Pertanyaan tentang proses pendaftaran dapat dilayani melalui help-desk pada laman Panitia.
No.
Tanggal
Kegiatan
Lokasi
1. 22 Februari - 8 Maret 2017
Pengumuman
http://www.panselnas.id, http://ptb.stmkg.ac.id, http://www.bmkg.go.id
2. 9 Maret - 31 Maret 2017
Pendaftaran di panselnas
http://www.panselnas.id
3. 9 Maret - 10 April 2017
Pengisian formulir pendaftaran STMKG
http://ptb.stmkg.ac.id
4. 10 April 2017
Hari akhir pembayaran biaya pendaftaran
BNI / ATM BNI
5. 18 April 2017
Pengumuman detil jadwal tes untuk setiap calon.
http://ptb.stmkg.ac.id
6. 25 April - 10 Mei 2017
Tes Kompetensi Dasar dan Tes Kompetensi Bidang.
10 lokasi BKN/BKN Regional *)
5. 11 Mei - 20 Mei 2017
Wawancara dan Tes Kesehatan
10 lokasi UPT BMKG*) dan RSUD yang ditunjuk Panitia.
6. 31 Mei 2017
Hari akhir berkas rekam medis diterima Panitia.
7. 7 Juli 2017
Pengumuman Final
http://ptb.stmkg.ac.id
8. 10 Juli - 21 Juli 2017
Daftar ulang bagi yang diterima
Kampus STMKG Tangerang Selatan
Tanggal Penting Penerimaan Taruna Baru Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika PTB-STMKG-2017.

Daftar alamat lokasi tes TKD dan TKB
1.Medan
Kantor Regional VI BKN
Jl. TB Simatupang No. 124, Pinang Baris, Medan 20128
2.Palembang
Kantor Regional VII BKN
Jl. Gubernur H.A. Bastari, Seberang Ulu I, Jakabaring Palembang 30525
3.Jakarta
Kantor Pusat BKN
Jl. Mayjend. Sutoyo No. 12 Cililitan Jakarta Timur 13640
4.Yogyakarta
Kantor Regional I BKN
Jl. Magelang Km. 7.5, Yogyakarta 55285
5.Surabaya
Kantor Regional II BKN
Jl. Letjen S. Parman 6, Surabaya, Jawa Timur
6.Banjarmasin
Kantor Regional VIII BKN
Jl. Bhayangkara No. 1 Sungai Besar, Banjar Baru, Kalimantan Selatan 70714
7.Makassar
Kantor Regional IV BKN
Jl. Pacerakang No.3 Daya Kec. Bringkanaya Makasar
8.Manado
Kantor Regional XI BKN
Jl. AA Maramis Km. 8 Paniki Bawah, Mapangat, Manado 95258
9.Mataram
Kantor UPT BKN
Jl. Sandat No. 4, Mataram.
10.Jayapura
Kantor Regional IX BKN
Jl. Baru No. 100/B Kota Raja, Jayapura 99225
Alamat BKN untuk Tes TKD dan TKB PTB-STMKG-2017.

Indonesia Weather Bulletin For Shipping

Berlaku tanggal : 29 Januari 2017

Part One :
WARNING NIL.
Part Two :
GENERAL SITUATION FOR JANUARY 28, 2016 12.00 UTC LOW PRESSURE AREA 990HPA IN WESTERN OF AUSTRALIA.
EDDY CIRCULATION AREA IN PASIFIC OCEAN NORTHERN OF HALMAHERA.
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW IN NORTHERN PART OF INDONESIA.
WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW IN SOUTHERN PART OF INDONESIA EXCEPT SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW IN ARAFURU SEA AND BANDA SEA.
Part Three :
FORECAST

A. Weather :

1. HEAVY RAIN OCCURS IN ENGGANO � BENGKULU ISLAND WATERS, KARIMATA STRAIT, LINGGA ISLAND WATERS TO GELASA STRAIT, SOUTHERN OF KALIMANTAN WATERS, JAVA SEA, NORTHERN OF CENTRE JAVA TO EAST JAVA WATERS, SUMBAWA SEA, WESTERN OF SOUTH SULAWESI WATERS, SABALANA
� SELAYAR ISLAND WATERS, FLORES SEA, SOUTHERN OF EAST JAVA TO LOMBOK ISLAND WATERS, MANOKWARI WATERS, CENDRAWASIH GULF, AMAMAPARE � AGATS WATERS.
VISIBILITY REDUCING BELOW 2NM IN PRECIPITATION.

B. Winds Direction dan Speed From Surface Up To 3000 Feet :

WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 3 TO 4 BF OCCURS IN WESTERN OF SIMEULEU TO MENTAWAI ISLAND WATERS, KAI � ARU ISLAND WATERS, AMAMAPARE � AGATS WATERS, NORTHERN OF PAPUA WATERS. 4 TO 5 BF OCCURS IN WESTERN OF BENGKULU TO SOUTHERN OF SUMBA ISLAND WATERS, SAWU ISLAND TO KUPANG WATERS, SAWU SEA, KARIMATA STRAIT, JAVA SEA, SOUTHERN OF KALIMANTAN WATERS, EASTERN OF BENGKULU WATERS, NORTHERN OF JAVA WATERS, SOUTHERN PART OF MAKASSAR STRAIT, SUMBAWA SEA, SABALANA � SELAYAR ISLAND WATERS, FLORES SEA. 5 TO 6 BF OCCURS IN INDIAN OCEAN SOUTHERN OF CENTRE JAVA.

NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY 3 TO 4 BF OCCURS IN ANAMBAS � NATUNA ISLAND WATERS, NATUNA SEA, SOUTH CHINA SEA, MAKASSAR STRAIT, MOLUCCA SEA, NORTHERN OF RAJA AMPAT SORONG TO BIAK WATERS.

NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY 3 TO 4 BF OCCURS IN MALACCA STRAIT, NORTHERN AND WESTERN OF ACEH WATERS, WESTERN PART OF SULAWESI SEA. CIRCULATION AREA 3 TO 4 BF OCCURS IN SOUTHERN OF ARU ISLAND WATERS.

C. State of Sea :

1. MODERATE SEA OCCURS IN WESTERN OF ACEH WATERS, WESTERN OF SIMELEU TO ENGGANO � BENGKULU WATERS, INDIAN OCEAN WESTERN OF ACEH TO BENGKULU, SAWU SEA, KUPANG TO ROTE ISLAND WATERS, SOUTH CHINA SEA, ANAMBAS TO NATUNA ISLAND WATERS, NATUNA SEA, NORTHERN OF BANGKA BELITUNG ISLAND WATERS, KARIMATA STRAIT, SOUTHERN OF KALIMANTAN WATERS, JAVA SEA, NORTHERN OF JAVA WATERS, SUMBAWA SEA, SOUTHERN PART OF MAKASSAR STRAIT, SABALANA � SELAYAR ISLAND WATERS, FLORES SEA, SANGIHE ISLAND WATERS, MOLUCCA SEA, HALMAHERA SEA, NORTHERN OF WEST PAPUA TO PAPUA WATERS.

2. ROUGH SEA OCCURS IN WESTERN OF LAMPUNG WATERS, SOUTHERN OF JAVA TO SUMBA ISLAND WATERS, INDIAN OCEAN WESTERN OF LAMPUNG TO SUMBA ISLAND, TALAUD ISLAND WATERS, NORTHERN OF HALMAHERA ISLAND WATERS, PASIFIC OCEAN NORTHERN OF HALMAHERA.

3. 1.25 TO 2.5 M SWELL OCCURS IN WESTERN OF SIMEULEU TO SOUTHERN OF SUMBA ISLAND WATERS, NORTHERN OF ANAMBAS - NATUNA ISLAND WATERS, SOUTH CHINA SEA, SANGIHE - TALAUD ISLAND WATERS, NORTHERN PART OF MOLUCCA SEA, HALMAHERA ISLAND WATERS, HALMAHERA SEA, NORTHERN OF WEST PAPUA TO PAPUA WATERS.
OTHER SEA AREAS GENERALLY ARE SEA SLIGHT AND SWELL LOW.

Indonesia Weather Bulletin For Shipping

Berlaku tanggal : 31 Januari 2017

Part One :

NIL

Part Two :

LOW PRESSURE AREA 999HPA IN INDIAN OCEAN WESTERN OF AUSTRALIA AND 1007HPA IN WESTERN PART OF ARAFURU SEA. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AREA IN INDIAN OCEAN WESTERN OF ACEH.
EDDY CIRCULATION AREA IN SULAWESI SEA.
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW IN NORTHERN PART OF INDONESIA. WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW IN SOUTHERN PART OF INDONESIA

Part Three :

WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTER 3 TO 5 BF OCCURS IN MENTAWAI ISLAND WATERS, NORTHERN PART OF SUNDA STRAIT, SOUTHERN OF EAST JAVA TO NUSA TENGGARA, SAWU SEA, KARIMATA STRAIT, EASTERN OF LAMPUNG WATERS, JAVA SEA, SOUTHERN OF KALIMANTAN WATERS, SUMBAWA SEA, BONE GULF, BURU TO CERAM SEA, MOLUCAS SEA, HALMAHERA ISLAND WATERS, HALMAHERA SEA, WEST PAPUA WATERS, NORTHERN OF PAPUA WATERS. 5 TO 6 BF OCCURS IN WESTERN OF BENGKULU TO LAMPUNG WATERS, SOUTHERN PART OF SUNDA STRAIT, SOUTHERN OF BANTEN TO CENTRE JAVA WATERS, FLORES SEA, BANDA SEA, ARAFURU SEA.

NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY 3 TO 4 BF OCCURS IN MALACCA STRAIT, ACEH WATERS. 4 TO 5 BF OCCURS IN SOUTH CHINA SEA, ANAMBAS TO NATUNA ISLAND WATERS, NATUNA SEA, RIAU ISLAND WATERS, BANGKA BELITUNG ISLAND WATERS.

SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY 3 TO 4 BF OCCURS IN MACASSAR STRAIT, WESTERN PART OF SULAWESI SEA.

A. Weather :

1. HEAVY RAIN OCCURS IN MENTAWAI ISLAND TO WESTERN OFLAMPUNG WATERS, SUNDA STRAIT, SOUTHERN OF JAVA TO SUMBAWA ISLAND WATERS, SUMBA ISLAND WATERS, SAWU SEA, KUPANG TO ROTE ISLAND WATERS, NATUNA SEA, KARIMATA STRAIT, EASTERN OF LAMPUNG WATERS, JAVA SEA, SOUTHERN PART OF MAKASSAR STRAIT, FLORES ISLAND WATERS, FLORES SEA, BANDA SEA, BURU TO CERAM SEA, SERMATA TO TANIMBAR ISLAND WATERS, KAI TO ARU ISLAND WATERS, ARAFURU SEA, WEST PAPUA WATERS, NORTHERN OF PAPUA WATERS.

VISIBILITY REDUCING BELOW 2NM IN PRECIPITATION

C. State of Sea :

1. MODERATE SEA OCCURS IN NORTHERN OF SABANG ISLAND WATERS, WESTERN OF ACEH TO BENGKULU WATERS, INDIAN OCEAN WESTERN OF ACEH TO NIAS ISLAND WATERS, SOUTHERN OF BALI TO SUMBA ISLAND WATERS, SOUTHERN PART OF BALI STRAIT � LOMBOK STRAIT � ALAS STRAIT, SAWU SEA, FLORES ISLAND WATERS, KUPANG TO ROTE ISLAND WATERS, INDIAN OCEAN SOUTHERN OF BALI TO NUSA TENGGARA, ANAMBAS TO NATUNA ISLAND WATERS, NATUNA SEA, KARIMATA STRAIT, JAVA SEA, NORTHERN OF CENTRE JAVA WATERS, SUMBAWA SEA, SELAYAR ISLAND WATERS, SOUTHERN OF BAUBAU WATERS, FLORES SEA GRADUALLY INCREASSING BECOMING ROUGH SEA IN THE MIDDLE OF NIGHT, SERMATA TO LETTI ISLAND WATERS, SOUTHERN OF BURU TO CERAM ISLAND WATERS, CERAM SEA, SANGIHE TO TALAUD ISLAND WATERS, MOLUCAS SEA, NORTHERN OF HALMAHERA ISLAND WATERS, HALMAHERA SEA, NORTHERN OF WEST PAPUA TO PAPUA WATERS, AMAMAPARE TO AGATS WATERS.

2. 1.25 TO 2.5 M SWELL OCCURS IN WESTERN OF SUMATRA WATERS, SOUTHERN PART OF SUNDA STRAIT, SOUTHERN OF JAVA TO SUMBA ISLAND WATERS, NORTHERN PART OF BANDA SEA, TALAUD ISLAND WATERS, NORTHERN OF HALMAHERA ISLAND WATERS, NORTHERN OF WEST PAPUA TO PAPUA WATERS. OTHER SEA AREAS GENERALLY ARE SEA SLIGHT AND SWELL LOW

3. ROUGH SEA OCCURS IN SOUTH CHINA SEA, WESTERN OF LAMPUNG WATERS, SOUTHERN PART OF SUNDA STRAIT, SOUTHERN OF JAVA, INDIAN OCEAN WESTERN OF MENTAWAI ISLAND TO SOUTHERN OF JAVA, BANDA SEA, BABAR TO TANIMBAR ISLAND WATERS, KAI TO ARU ISLAND WATERS, ARAFURU SEA.

ISSUED BY BMKG AT 02:30 UTC THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 09, 2017
FORECAST VALID FOR 24 HOURS FROM 0300 UTC THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 09, 2017

PART I WARNING

NIL.

PART II GENERAL SITUATION FOR FEBRUARY 08, 2016 12.00 UTC

LOW PRESSURE AREA 984HPA IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA, 1006HPA IN PASIFIC OCEAN EASTERN OF PHILIPPINES AND CARPENTARIA GULF.

WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW IN NORTHERN PART OF INDONESIA.

WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW IN SOUTHERN PART OF INDONESIA. MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW IN EASTERN PART OF JAVA SEA, SUMBAWA SEA, BALI TO NUSA TENGGARA WATERS, FLORES SEA, INDIAN OCEAN SOUTHERN OF EAST JAVA TO NUSA TENGGARA.

PART III FORECAST

WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 3 TO 4 BF OCCURS IN NIAS TO MENTAWAI ISLAND WATERS, SOUTHERN PART OF MAKASSAR STRAIT, BONE GULF, BANDA SEA, BURU SEA, SULAWESI SEA, SANGIHE TALAUD ISLAND WATERS, MOLUCAS SEA, NORTHERN OF HALMAHERA ISLAND WATERS, HALMAHERA SEA, NORTHERN OF WEST PAPUA TO PAPUA WATERS. 4 TO 6 BF OCCURS IN BENGKULU TO LAMPUNG WATERS, SUNDA STRAIT, SOUTHERN OF JAVA TO SUMBA ISLAND WATERS, SUMBA STRAIT, SAWU SEA, KUPANG TO ROTE ISLAND WATERS, TIMOR SEA, JAVA SEA, SOUTHERN OF KALIMANTAN WATERS, NORTHERN OF JAVA WATERS, BALI SEA, NORTHERN OF BALI TO FLORES ISLAND WATERS, SELAYAR ISLAND WATERS, FLORES SEA, ARAFURU SEA, YOS SUDARSO TO MERAUKE WATERS. 6 TO 7 BF OCCURS IN SUMBAWA SEA, INDIAN OCEAN SOUTHERN OF CENTRE JAVA.

NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY 3 TO 4 BF OCCURS IN MALACCA STRAIT, ACEH WATERS, EASTERN OF SUMATRA WATERS, ANAMBAS TO NATUNA ISLAND WATERS, RIAU ISLAND WATERS, NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PART OF MAKASSAR STRAIT, EASTERN OF  KALIMANTAN WATERS. 4 TO 5 BF OCCURS IN NATUNA SEA, BANGKA BELITUNG ISLAND WATERS, KARIMATA STRAIT, WEST KALIMANTAN WATERS.

MODERATE SEA OCCURS IN WESTERN OF ACEH WATERS, WESTERN OF SIMEULUE TO MENTAWAI ISLAND WATERS, BENGKULU WATERS, INDIAN OCEAN WESTERN OF ACEH TO BENGKULU, ANAMBAS TO NATUNA ISLAND WATERS, NATUNA SEA, KARIMATA STRAIT, WESTERN AND CENTRE PART OF JAVA SEA, NORTHERN OF WEST JAVA TO EAST JAVA WATERS, BALI SEA, SOUTHERN PART OF MAKASSAR STRAIT, SELAYAR ISLAND WATERS, SOUTHERN OF FLORES ISLAND WATERS, NORTHERN PART OF SAWU SEA, SERMATA TO TANIMBAR ISLAND WATERS, SOUTHERN PART OF BANDA SEA, SOUTHERN OF ARU ISLAND WATERS, ARAFURU SEA, SANGIHE TALAUD ISLAND WATERS, NORTHERN OF HALMAHERA ISLAND WATERS, HALMAHERA SEA, NORTHERN OF WEST PAPUA TO PAPUA WATERS, PASIFIC OCEAN NORTHERN OF HALMAHERA TO PAPUA.

ROUGH SEA OCCURS IN SOUTH CHINA SEA, ENGGANO ISLAND TO WESTERN OF LAMPUNG WATERS, SOUTHERN PART OF SUNDA STRAIT, SOUTHERN OF JAVA TO SUMBA ISLAND WATERS, SOUTHERN PART BALI-LOMBOK-ALAS STRAIT, SOUTHERN PART OF SAWU SEA, KUPANG TO ROTE ISLAND WATERS, INDIAN OCEAN SOUTHERN OF LAMPUNG TO EAST NUSA TENGGARA, TIMOR SEA SOUTHERN OF KUPANG, EASTERN PART OF JAVA SEA, NORTHERN OF MADURA ISLAND TO KANGEAN ISLAND WATERS, SUMBAWA SEA, NORTHERN OF SUMBAWA TO FLORES ISLAND WATERS, FLORES SEA.

1.25 TO 2.5 M SWELL OCCURS IN NORTHERN OF NATUNA ISLAND WATERS, SOUTHERN OF JAVA TO SUMBA ISLAND WATERS, SAWU SEA, KUPANG TO ROTE ISLAND WATERS, TIMOR SEA, NORTHERN OF TALAUD ISLAND WATERS, NORTHERN OF HALMAHERA WATERS.

2.5 TO 3.5 M SWELL OCCURS IN INDIAN OCEAN SOUTHERN OF JAVA TO EAST NUSA TENGGARA.

OTHER SEA AREAS GENERALLY ARE SEA SLIGHT AND SWELL LOW.

HEAVY RAIN OCCURS IN BENGKULU AND LAMPUNG WATERS, BANGKA BELITUNG ISLAND WATERS, KARIMATA STRAIT, SUNDA STRAIT, SOUTHERN OF BANTEN TO CENTRE JAVA WATERS, NORTHERN OF JAVA WATERS, JAVA SEA, SUMBAWA SEA, BALI TO SUMBAWA ISLAND WATERS, FLORES SEA, BANDA SEA, BURU ISLAND WATERS, TIMOR SEA, ARAFURU SEA, YOS SUDARSO TO MERAUKE WATERS.

VISIBILITY REDUCING BELOW 2NM IN PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT WEATHER BULLETIN FOR SHIPPING WILL BE ISSUED AT 02.30 UTC FRIDAY.

BROADSCALE ENVIRONMENT - LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS

•Tropical waves (MJO, ER waves)

•Monsoon or trade wind surges

•Upper trough within 25 deg to the west or retrogressing upper low

•Broad scale outflow channels – fanning of cirrus

BROADSCALE ENVIRONMENT  -  NEAR SUSPECT AREA

•low to mid level trough

•light upper winds

•weak shear in area, stronger shear further away

•deep moist air in all sectors

DEVELOPMENT OF EXISTING DISTURBANCE - CIRCULATION

•identifiable cyclonic circulations (low/mid level circulation centre = cloud lines)

•vertically stacked circulation (surface – 500 hPa)

•significant (vertically stacked & round) mid level circulation (850-500 hPa ,15-25 kt)

DEVELOPMENT OF EXISTING DISTURBANCE - DEEP CONVECTION

•deep convection (cold cloud tops <-65C) < 2 degree radius, persisting 6-12 hrs.

•Pressure falls > 2 hPa within 3 degree of centre

A.Is the MJO active in our longitudes ?
MJO OLR anomalies | Real time Multivariate MJO Index

B.Are there any tropical/easterly waves currently propagating towards the suspect area?
All Mode OLR anomalies | Tropical Wave Forecast

C.Are there any strong low-level monsoon or trade flows feeding into the suspect area now? (Not necessarily a surge but a maintenance of strong flow).
CIMMS | Quickscat | TXLAPS 850hPa

D.Is there a low/mid level trough in the suspect area now?
CIMMS | Gradient 00Z | Gradient 12Z | TXLAPS 900hPa | TXLAPS 850hPa

E.Are the winds at 200/250 hPa over the suspect area < 20 knots?
CIMMS | 200 hPa 00Z | 200 hPa 12Z | TXLAPS 200hPa

F.Is there low (5-15 kt) 850-200 hPa vertical shear near the area and stronger (>15 kt) shear away (5-10°) from the suspect area?
CIMSS | TXLAPS 850-200hPa shear

G.Is there a synoptic feature creating strong upper divergence above the suspect area? For example an upper trough or retrogressing upper low within 25 degrees to the west, or a strong equatorial jet with the ridge centre over the area.
CIMSS | TXLAPS 200hPa Div

H.Is there evidence on satellite imagery or upper streamline charts of at least one outflow channel?
GOES-9 | 200 hPa 00Z | 200 hPa 12Z

I.Is there evidence of two outflow channels or fanning of cirrus (equatorward and eastward of CDO)? If so consider rapid development potential.
GOES-9

J.Is the suspect area being fed by deep moist air in all sectors?
SSMI Precip Water | GOES-9 WV | Darwin | Gove | Weipa | Broome | TXLAPS 850hPa RH | TXLAPS 700hPa RH | TXLAPS 500hPa RH

Vortical towers

Cores of deep Cb convection forming in a vorticity rich pre-hurricane environment.

The towers contain a lot of vorticity, they are inertially stable.

So latent heat generated becomes trapped in the rotating convective cores.

Their lifetime is of the order of one hour.

First Stage – Preconditioning Phase

Vortical hot towers compete for CAPE and angular momentum.

Vorticity generated by the towers (updraft) passes to the environment after the towers decay. 

Environmental vorticity increases.

Second Stage - Multiple Merger and Axisymmetrization Phase

Hot towers coalesce in an environment of enhanced vorticity (diabatic mergers).

This coalescence quadruples the horizontal scale of relative vorticity.

Tangential winds increase, and warming at low levels.

The TC is born (model data indicates the vortex merger stage lasts from 27-36hrs)

Upon Receipt of Warning:
1. Plot the current and forecast 24 hour storm  positions and forecast radius of 35 kt winds.
2. Using a compass extend the radius of the forecast 24 hour 35 kt wind area by 100 NM.
3. Draw tangents relative to the direction of the storm from the 35 kt radius (current position) to the outermost radius at the 24 hr forecast position.  Avoid the DANGER AREA
4. Use the same procedure for the 48 and 72 hr forecast positions, however, use 200 and 300 NM radii/respectively.
   Avoid the DANGER AREA.



TROPICAL CYCLONE EVASION

- Meteorological elements are not uniformly distributed throughout a tropical
Storm is divided into left/right semicircles and quadrants, relative to the direction of motion
Usually strongest winds are on right side in N.H. (added to motion)

- Ship in the “Dangerous” (right) semi-circle:
1.  Maneuver ship so relative wind is from 045 degrees to starboard.
2.  Continually hold course with respect to relative wind, making best way possible.

- Ship in the “Less Dangerous” (left) semi-circle:
1.  Maneuver ship so that relative wind is from 135 degrees to starboard.
2.  Hold course with respect to relative wind, and make best SOA.

- Never cross the “T”:    Do not plan to cross the track of a hurricane.

NEVER LEFT TO RIGHT!  Respect the negative effects that heavy weather places on vessel speed/handling. Sudden accelerations in hurricane motion can ultimately place a vessel in conditions not originally expected, resulting in disaster! 

Adjustments to course & speed in order to remain clear of the danger area in a hurricane are the most prudent navigation decisions a mariner can make in these instances. 

If it becomes necessary to cross the “T” right to left, ensure you are at least 300NM from the center. 

Follow the 1 – 2 – 3 Rule

- Monitor warnings and advisories to prevent an encounter.

Forecast Track Tendencies:  Comparison of the most recent NHC forecast track with forecast tracks from the past 24 hours can be useful for determining a trend in the forecast motion of a hurricane. 

For instance, a comparison of forecast tracks issued every 6 hours over the last 24 hours, may show a noticeable shift right or left (with respect to storm motion) in the forecast track of a hurricane. This information may provide some indication as to how the forecast & actual hurricane track are trending and provide more guidance in navigation planning for avoidance, particularly in the 2-3 day forecast range & beyond.

Stay Inport or Ride it out at Sea?
Factors to consider!
The decision to leave port for hurricane avoidance must be made very early, and must be balanced with a number of other factors

-  Storm Intensity, Size, Strength, and Speed.  
-  Port Facilities, Berthing & Shelter Requirements 
-  24 hours prior to onset of gale force winds.
-  Probability of Hit (angle of approach)
-  Vessel, size, speed, engineering status
-  Time window to clear last vessel
-  Vessel Route (safe, heavy seas, etc...)


* Early decisions to leave port in an attempt to avoid hurricanes are crucial.*